Stakeholder-Driven Dynamic Systems Modeling for Managing the Water-Food-Ecosystems Nexus in the Konya Closed Basin, Türkiye

The Konya Closed Basin in central Türkiye is a semi-arid region of major agricultural significance and a prominent example of escalating challenges related to water scarcity and governance. Despite substantial groundwater potential and the presence of Türkiye’s largest freshwater lake, Lake Beyşehir, the basin has experienced overexploitation of its water resources. This crisis is primarily driven by the cultivation of water-intensive crops and the resulting increase in water demand. Since the 1990s, groundwater levels have declined by approximately 35 meters with recent acceleration leading to sinkhole formation, groundwater salinization, and higher irrigation costs. Besides, increasing water demand, together with limited surface water availability, has intensified pressures on Lake Beyşehir. Although lake water levels exhibit seasonal variation, a clear long-term declining trend is evident. To address these challenges, this study aims to improve understanding of the basin’s complex water management dynamics and to explore integrated policy options that can address water resources management, agricultural production, and ecosystem conservation. To this end, this research employs a dynamic simulation modeling approach that is developed in parallel with the participatory workshops. Three stakeholder workshops were organized to support successive stages of model development.

The first workshop focused on establishing a shared understanding of the challenges facing the basin and identifying the complex relationships among agricultural practices, water governance, and climate trends. The issues identified during this workshop formed the conceptual foundation of the model and informed the selection of key model indicators. The second workshop was designed as a structured visioning exercise intended to inform the development of model scenarios. Participants explored how alternative visions could be realized through concrete actions and interventions. These interventions addressed multiple leverage points, including education, policy, technology, infrastructure, governance, and behavioral change. The identified levers were subsequently used to define scenario parameters and to support the development of an interactive model interface. The third and final workshop focused on stakeholder exploration of the model through the interactive interface, enabling participants to engage with the model and assess the implications of different scenarios.

This study demonstrates that the water management challenges of the Konya Closed Basin cannot be addressed through individual, isolated solutions. Rather, these challenges are multi-layered, arising from interactions of agricultural practices, climatic and hydrological constraints, governance structures, and socio-economic dynamics, and therefore require integrated and coordinated approaches. In the Konya Closed Basin, this participatory approach facilitated the generation of useful insights while strengthening the foundations for integrated and adaptive water management.

Acknowledgement: This work was supported by OurMED PRIMA Program project funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation under grant agreement No. 2222.