Quantifying Food Security Impacts of Hydrological Disasters Through Post-Event Assessments

Climate change is altering the frequency and intensity of hydrological extremes, amplifying their consequences for agriculture and food security. In regions already burdened by socioeconomic vulnerabilities, agricultural losses from floods and similar events can disrupt food systems far beyond crop produce availability alone. Despite growing recognition of these cascading effects, methods to estimate food security impacts—while remaining compatible with local data and time constraints—are still limited. This study introduces a practical framework for translating post-disaster assessments into indicators of food availability, access, and utilization, placing affected communities at the center of the analysis and offering insights into food stability. We apply this approach to the 2015 floods in Malawi, estimating that crop losses equated to food sufficient for over 300,000 people and dietary balance for nearly 2.3 million, with disproportionate impacts on poorer districts. Although simplified, the methodology is transparent, replicable, and adaptable to other disaster contexts, providing actionable evidence for policy and recovery strategies aimed at safeguarding food security.