Integrated Approach for Low-Enthalpy Geothermal Resource Appraisal and Assessment in Nigeria: Implications for Net-Zero Target

The global energy transition is accelerating due to the climate crisis, with nations aiming for net-zero emissions as outlined in the “UAE Consensus” from the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28). Sub-Saharan Africa must balance climate resilience and economic growth. Geothermal energy, a low-carbon, under-explored alternative to fossil fuels, can help Nigeria meet expanding energy needs. The study which aims to aims to develop an integrated, multi-scale approach for assessing geothermal resource potential employed a multi-criteria decision-making framework combining Fuzzy AHP and TOPSIS to assess geothermal potential across Nigeria’s 37 states. Fuzzy AHP provided weighted criteria, while TOPSIS calculated performance scores based on each state’s proximity to the ideal solution. Initial findings suggest that most of the highest-ranked states for geothermal potential align within regions influenced by the most recent magmatic activities in Nigeria, which occurred during the Tertiary period The analysis showed a wide spread of results, reflecting significant regional variability in geothermal conditions. Nasarawa, Bauchi, and Benue ranked highest, indicating strong geothermal suitability. Lagos, Gombe, and Ogun ranked lowest, while states such as Rivers, Katsina, and Niger showed moderate potential. Meanwhile, we will undertake targeted fieldwork in high-prospect states to map structural features at outcrop scale and conduct geochemical analysis.