The Black Box – A mixed-method approach linking extreme event impacts on ecosystems in coastal and marine areas to socio-ecological risks

As the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as marine heatwaves, droughts and storms increases with climate change, so too do the efforts of researchers to understand the impacts of such extreme on marine and coastal ecosystems. In many coastal areas, communities and local industry depend on these ecosystems for income, protection, cultural heritage and sense of place, while at the same potentially influencing the strength of hazards through management decisions. It is therefore critical to understand the connection between hydro-dynamic extremes, marine and coastal ecosystems, and the services depended upon by different social and sectoral interests.

We combined mapping and modelling of marine and coastal ecosystems with stakeholder workshops in the Elbe / German Bight region from Hamburg to Helgoland, a region heavily connected with and impacted by human activities, to understand ecosystem risks due to extreme events and the ways in which these risks affect different local sectors and communities. Spatial data on local ecosystems was synthesised and mapped to identify key ecosystems of interest. Data was then gathered via literature review on thresholds for extreme event parameters and the ecosystem / individual level responses, supported by expert consultations and ecosystem-focused mini-workshops. We combined this with an impact web approach to create a conceptual risk web as a baseline for identifying and prioritising socio-ecological risks due to different extreme events experienced in the region. A series of stakeholder workshops were held to understand the key risks perceived by a diverse range of actors, and values were assigned to different regions of the study area by different sectors based on the IPBES Nature’s Contributions to People (NCP) framework. This framework puts more emphasis on non-monetary services, while allowing for diverse values and knowledge types to be integrated.

This work highlights the “black box” of linking empirical data on ecosystem impacts with how these impacts affect the provision of certain ecosystem services, which can be derived using qualitative and qualitative data. A mixed-methods approach is essential for assessing the cascading effects of ecosystem damage on society, especially in support of more effective, collaborative adaptation planning which enhances ecosystem resilience in oft-overlooked marine and coastal systems.