Comparing technical feasibility of transitioning vulnerable neighbourhoods into Positive Energy Districts (PEDs) across Northern Europe

Positive Energy Districts (PEDs) are a promoted sustainable pathway for urban energy systems, characterised by low-carbon renewable energy, energy self-sufficiency and improved energy equity. By integrating renewable energy sources, energy storage, and demand-side management, PEDs aim to generate at least as much energy as they consume.  Buildings increasingly integrate solar photovoltaics (PV) to power heat pumps; however, high PV-penetration can result in excess electricity generation during summer periods, whereas electrified heating significantly increases winter peak electricity demand. This creates a pronounced temporal mismatch between local electricity supply and demand in a neighbourhood, which is further exacerbated by poorly insulated buildings in social housing.  Although this temporal mismatch is a recognised challenge in PED implementation, it remains unclear whether the feasibility constraints vary primarily with neighbourhood characteristics, such as housing typologies, or whether similar limitations emerge across neighbourhoods. Here, we examine four social housing communities experiencing energy vulnerability in three Northern European countries. These include neighbourhoods in Texel (Netherlands), Orebro and Grythyttan (Sweden), and Kongsvinger (Norway). We mainly assess and compare the technical feasibility of transitioning them to PEDs.

We analyse electricity and heat demand for the neighbourhoods using a bottom-up approach. We simulate electricity demand profiles for each building in the neighbourhood, combining typical electricity usage and potential electricity demand from heat pumps. Using a 5R1C building thermal model, we simulate the heat demand profiles for residential neighbourhoods, incorporating local weather data, building geometries, and occupancy patterns. We model three levels of insulation: existing, basic and advanced, based on TABULA database.  To evaluate renewable energy potential, we simulate solar PV generation with varying PV-penetration levels. We use the Time Series Initialization for Buildings (tsib) Python package, with local weather inputs from COSMO-REA6 reanalysis data. The overall modelling framework employs the methodology presented in Joshi et al. (2025), enabling a comparison across neighbourhoods. We compute technical indicators, including variability, unfulfilled demand, loss of power supply probability, excess energy, and storage capacity requirements for neighbourhoods.

All neighbourhoods meet the PED definition of meeting annual demand at 100% PV-penetration. Comparing scenarios at various PV-penetrations reveals consistent trends across neighbourhoods. The heating demand is significantly reduced by advanced insulation; however, PED feasibility remains constrained by temporal mismatches between the demand and supply.  Despite meeting annual targets, unfulfilled demand remains high (around 80%), with slightly lower values observed in the denser Swedish neighbourhood. While solar PVs can contribute to local energy generation, achieving temporal alignment would require extremely large storage. Improving insulation, therefore, emerges as a critical step in addressing the energy vulnerability, although grid support remains necessary. Overall, the neighbourhoods face similar constraints, with multi-family housing showing a reduced temporal mismatch. Across all cases, full independence from the electricity grid remains unattainable, while local generation can significantly support summer electricity supply.

Reference:

Joshi, M. Y., Ricker, B., & Camargo, L. R. (2025). Technical challenges in transitioning vulnerable neighbourhoods to solar photovoltaic-driven positive energy districts with integrated heat pumps. In Journal of Physics: Conference Series (Vol. 3140, No. 3, p. 032002). IOP Publishing.