Assessment of China's Energy-Carbon Emission System Under Extreme Climate Conditions in the Context of Carbon Neutrality

Extreme weather events are growing more severe due to climate change. These events impact energy supplies from both renewable and fossil fuel sources. They also affect pathways to carbon neutrality by altering carbon emissions. This study examines how extreme weather shapes China’s energy system and carbon emissions. Using daily carbon emission data from China spanning 1990–2025, combined with multiple future climate scenarios (SSP pathways). A data-driven machine learning approach quantifies the role of extreme temperatures in raising the carbon intensity of the energy system and increasing its dependence on fossil fuels. Our results show that extreme high- and low-temperature events disrupt the energy system. They increase the carbon intensity of energy production, heighten reliance on fossil fuels, and reduce the actual efficiency of renewable energy generation. Simultaneously, we also find that provinces with a larger share of renewable energy tend to have energy systems that are more sensitive to extreme temperatures. Climate simulations indicate that under the SSP1-2.6 pathway, China is projected to achieve carbon neutrality around 2062 with a regional average warming of approximately 2°C, most pronounced in the northwest. Compared to higher-emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), achieving carbon neutrality helps mitigate climate change and slows the intensification of extreme warming across most of China. The study concludes that while China's “dual carbon” goals are essential for long-term climate risk reduction, the ongoing energy transition must seriously address the immediate impacts of extreme weather on renewable energy systems. These findings offer a scientific basis for planning a reliable energy system that supports China’s carbon neutrality objectives.