From Oasis Water Commons to Expanding Date-Palm Plantations: Deep Learning Mapping and Evapotranspiration-Based Water Demand in the Figuig Oasis, Morocco

Growing demand for dates—driven by Morocco’s rising population and expanding international markets for well-branded, high-value (“noble”) varieties—is accelerating the expansion of date-palm cultivation in the country’s arid and semi-arid frontiers. Much of this growth relies on intensified groundwater pumping, increasing pressure on shared aquifers that have long sustained oasis agroecosystems. Historically, these aquifers were managed through locally embedded water-sharing institutions that supported efficient allocation and long-term use; the rapid spread of pumped irrigation is nowadays reshaping this balance by amplifying competition for the same resource.

We investigate these dynamics in the Figuig oasis (eastern Morocco) and its watershed by linking agricultural expansion to water demand and comparing this demand with watershed-scale water availability. We hypothesize that once recently established plantations reach full productive age—beyond the relatively low-demand establishment phase—total water demand will exceed the catchment’s available supply.

We develop a date-palm water demand model that combines evapotranspiration-based water requirements with high-resolution mapping of fields and palm abundance. Field boundaries are delineated using a U-Net + watershed segmentation workflow, and palm trees are detected and counted using a YOLO object-detection model applied to drone imagery (small, heterogeneous oasis parcels) and satellite imagery (newer, larger, more homogeneous plantations). These tools are applied within a remote-sensing time series to quantify agricultural expansion and the associated increase in demand over time. Field surveys provide key parameters to translate mapped plantations into water demand, including irrigation method and efficiency, tree age classes, irrigation frequency, and planting density.

Our results indicate an approximately threefold expansion of agricultural land relative to the historically stable oasis area. About 65% of farms remain in early production stages (0–5 and 6–12 years), when water needs are relatively low, yet estimated demand already nearly matches watershed-scale availability. As plantations mature, projected demand is likely to surpass catchment-scale availability within the next decade, increasing the risk of irreversible impacts. Consistent with this trend, we observe drying of traditional springs and deteriorating water quality, underscoring the need to prioritize surface-water use and water-harvesting measures and to strictly regulate groundwater pumping.