The “Five Ws” rule as a risk communication tool: the Campi Flegrei case study (Southern Italy).

Risk communication is a core component of non-structural prevention strategies, especially in densely populated areas exposed to natural hazards characterised by scientific and forecasting uncertainty. The Phlegraean Fields area (Southern Italy) has recently experienced renewed bradyseismic activity, with earthquakes perceived by the population. This area lies on a caldera where approximately 500.000 people are directly exposed to volcanic risk (Red Zone). In response to bradyseism, a specific Communication Plan for the population has been prepared starting from October 2023 (Legislative Decree no. 140/2023).

The Plan provides an example of how information and education campaigns can operate in contexts dominated by uncertainty, enhancing public understanding of risk and supporting the adoption of informed behaviours. The operational context is complicated by the coexistence of multiple risk scenarios, including bradyseismic activity and potential volcanic eruptions, distinct civil protection planning frameworks, scientific uncertainty regarding the evolution of the phenomena, and the absence of deterministic temporal thresholds.

In such contexts, journalistic information is often shaped by models designed for news reporting and post-event narration, notably the “Five Ws” rule (Who, What, When, Where, Why). While effective for describing events that have already occurred, this paradigm proves inadequate when applied to risk communication in preventive phases. This inadequacy becomes particularly salient in light of the conceptual shift introduced by Law No. 225/1992 and the Civil Protection Code of 2018, which place non-structural prevention at the centre of civil protection action. In uncertainty-dominated scenarios such as the Phlegraean Fields, the absence of continuous communication may contribute to mistrust towards institutions.

This contribution analyses how the application of the Five Ws rule to risk communication, has influenced the adoption of more conscious behaviours by citizens, even within a context made complex by the ongoing bradyseismic crisis. The analysis is grounded in a conceptual distinction between emergency information and risk education, integrating institutional communication practices developed within civil protection systems with evidence derived from public responses. Communication is interpreted through a two-way communication paradigm, in which citizen feedback represents a resource for adapting communication strategies.

The case study examines communication actions implemented during recent phases of bradyseismic activity in the Phlegraean Fields, analysing user reactions on the Facebook page of the Campania Region Civil Protection and other relevant pages, including comments, reactions and shares, as well as behaviours observed during civil protection exercises (EXE Flegrei). These qualitative data were analysed to identify risk perception, emotional responses, trust in institutions and behavioural intentions.

The findings suggest that communication strategies which extend beyond the conventional Five Ws, focusing on ex ante explanations of phenomena, processes, and probabilities, and using simple language tailored to different audiences, foster constructive public participation, leading to a deeper understanding of risk and increased reliance on official sources. The contribution highlights the need for an evolution in risk communication practices, advocating a preventive and contextualised application of the Five Ws framework. The Campi Flegrei case also offers insights for other long-term uncertainty-driven risk contexts, providing indications for institutional communicators engaged in building informed and resilient-communities