Assessing the Social Resilience Impacts of Nature-Based Solutions under Multi-Hazard Contexts: An Integrated Evidence and Modelling Approach

Nature-based solutions (NbS) are widely promoted as a pathway to climate- and disaster-resilient development. However, empirical evidence on how NbS influence the resilience of human societies remains fragmented. Existing studies tend to focus on individual hazards or project-level physical outcomes, while broader social, economic, and institutional dimensions of resilience are often insufficiently addressed. At the same time, high-quality grey literature, particularly regional NbS assessments and policy reports could provide systematic classifications of NbS types, landscape contexts, and governance arrangements, as well as comparative insights from implemented cases. Despite their relevance, such sources are rarely integrated into scientific analyses in a structured manner.

This research develops an integrated, evidence-based framework to investigate the relationships between NbS and social resilience under multi-hazard conditions. Authoritative ASEAN NbS reports are used as a conceptual foundation to define NbS typologies, climate-sensitive landscape categories, and governance dimensions, drawing on insights from 70 documented regional cases and national policy analyses. These policy- and practice-based frameworks are then used to structure and interpret empirical evidence, allowing the identification of how different NbS interventions affect specific dimensions of social resilience, including exposure reduction, livelihood stability, adaptive capacity, and institutional response.

Building on this evidence synthesis, the study extends the analysis into forward-looking scenario assessment using hydrodynamic modelling. The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is selected as a critical case due to its high exposure to compound flood hazards, sea-level rise, salinity intrusion, and its strategic role in national development and NbS-oriented adaptation policies. Using LISFLOOD-FP, the study simulates policy-relevant NbS scenarios in coastal and deltaic settings, examining how changes in flood dynamics translate into differentiated social resilience outcomes. By linking policy-informed NbS scenarios and social resilience dimensions, this research advances a systemic understanding of NbS as socio-ecological interventions and offers a transferable framework for resilience assessment in compound and cascading risk contexts.