EURAD-2 Work Package CLIMATE: Impact of climate change on nuclear waste management

Since radioactive waste remains hazardous far beyond conventional planning horizons, climate change is treated as a fundamental external driver that can alter geological, hydrological, geochemical, mechanical, and biospheric processes relevant to containment and isolation over very long time periods, ranging from one hundred years to one million years. This presentation addresses knowledge gaps, constraints and recommendations regarding long-term influence of climate evolution on the safety of radioactive waste disposal systems in Europe, as collected during the EURAD-2 strategic study CLIMATE.  

A regional framework is applied in this study, distinguishing various climate zones, each with characteristic future climate trajectories and dominant safety-relevant processes. Across disposal concepts (surface disposal systems, near-surface or shallow geological facilities, and deep geological repositories), disposal phase (construction, operational, post-closure period) and climate zones in Europe (oceanic-subtropical-continental), this work examines how prolonged warming, renewed glaciations, permafrost development, sea-level change, erosion, and extreme hydroclimatic events are taken into account in climate-impact assessments. It highlights the uneven maturity of current methodologies, the strong dependence of long-term projections on assumptions about future greenhouse gas emissions, and the persistent limitations in regional downscaling and process coupling.  

By identifying common patterns, regional differences, and critical knowledge gaps, the strategic study CLIMATE establishes a coherent basis for improving climate-informed safety assessments and for prioritizing future research needed to support robust, defensible long-term disposal strategies.