Oil spill predictions in the Kerch Strait using SAR imagery, and MEDSLIK, OpenDrift, and MEDSLIK II forecasts

The Black Sea and the Sea of Azov are high-risk regions for major oil spill incidents due to heavy maritime tanker traffic and potential pipeline leaks. As a result, the Black Sea is currently considered the most oil-polluted marginal sea. In this work, we present a series of forecasting simulations to predict the dispersion of oil following an accidental 4,000-ton mazut release from the tanker Volgoneft 212 in the Kerch Strait from December 15 to December 25, 2024. The Kerch Strait is located in the southern part of the Sea of Azov, connecting this small, shallow, brackish body to the northeastern part of the Black Sea. The Strait is 40 km long and 4-5 km wide, and very shallow (3–5 m) at its center, deepening steadily to depths of 10 and 20 m at its northern and southern parts. Circulation through the Kerch Strait is not steady or unidirectional; it exhibits large synoptic variability in intensity and direction, governed by episodic wind-forcing events.

The Lagrangian particle-tracking numerical models MEDSLIK, OpenDrift, and MEDSLIK II were used in hindcast mode. The CMEMS hydrodynamic fields, the CYCOFOS wave fields, the NOAA-GFS, the ECMWF, and the SKIRON meteorological forecasts were used to force the oil spill models. Sentinel-1 SAR images were used to assess the impact of the oil spill and to evaluate model results. Satellite imagery and modelling results indicate that the spillage significantly affected more than 60 km of the NE Black Sea coastline, from Veselovka to Anapa. Due to the extreme weather conditions, with wave heights between 3 and 5 m, the available SAR imagery was limited. Combined SAR data and local media reports were first compared with the results of the oil spill models. Backtracking modelling and stochastic analysis were implemented to assess the exact location of the oil leak. The oil spill predictions from all models show good agreement with the reported on-site observations regarding the impacted coastal areas, the large extent of the impacted area, and the chronology of oil deposition along the coast.

Upper panels: SAR images of oil spillage in the Kerch Strait on 18/12/2024 (left) and 19/12/2024 (right); Lower panels: Superimposed MEDSLIK oil spill predictions on 18/12/2024 (left) and 19/12/2024 (right).