Modelling Workflows for the Energy Transition - New Tricks

We will never cease to be interested in fluid flow in the subsurface.  Only the fluid changes.

For the energy transition the emphasis of our modelling efforts is changing, however.  Aspects we could accept as ‘reasonable representation’ in oil and gas production projects (especially gas) are less acceptable for storage projects.

This talk will pick out two key elements which differ for ‘transition work’ from a modelling perspective:

• The need for multi-scale modelling (the REV, sometimes requires for production, always required for storage), and

 

• The need for better reservoir-scale structural representation – we’re good at sedimentary heterogeneity but much less so, in practice, for structural heterogeneity.

The expertise with scenario-based workflows, familiar from decades of production projects, applies directly to storage projects.  The principal difference is the lack of calibration data for aquifer-scale storage projects, as these are operating at scales more familiar from regional exploration groups, yet requiring a representation of physics more comparable to km-scale EOR production projects.  With such consequent uncertainty, this means the need for scenarios increases and the requirement for a base case decreases, to the point that ‘base case’ modelling becomes effectively meaningless for storage projects.

For geothermal projects the requirements change again, which even more emphasis on structural modelling.  The challenge here is marginal economics of geothermal projects and hence a different approach to project management (and resulting need for modelling support).  In the extreme case, the argument can be made for ‘no modelling, just fund a pilot project and learn from experience’.  A more nuanced approach would be to take learnings from existing modelling work for other projects (production or storage) and apply selectively and sensibly to the geothermal arena.

The talk will illustrate the above with reference to some example model workflows.