Non-prevailing region facing more severe Tropical Cyclone disaster losses in China

Typhoons are among the most destructive natural hazards globally, yet systematic assessments of disaster risks and driving mechanisms in non-traditional typhoon-affected regions remain limited. This study integrates typhoon disaster statistics, historical track data, and socioeconomic indicators from 1978 to 2020 to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns and driving factors of typhoon-induced losses across 23 provincial-level regions in China. Using spatiotemporal statistics and multiple regression analysis, we find that although the population affected by typhoons and the direct economic losses in coastal areas, which are traditionally high incidence regions for typhoons, have continued to rise, this growth has slowed over the past two decades. In contrast, typhoon-induced losses have shown a significant increasing trend in China’s southern inland transition zones and northern regions, which are traditionally low-incidence areas for typhoons. Northeast China has seen a sharp rise in crop losses over the past decade, while housing damage has declined in coastal areas but increased in inland provinces such as Yunnan and Heilongjiang. Compared to 1978–1999, disaster impacts during 2000–2020 have expanded inland and northward, with relative loss metrics displaying a bimodal distribution along the south–north axis. The affected population rate has intensified inland, and while the share of economic loss in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is declining in coastal areas, the proportion of crop losses is rising nationwide. Regression results suggest meteorological factors (e.g., typhoon frequency and intensity) dominate disaster impacts in coastal regions, whereas socioeconomic factors (e.g., GDP, population) are more influential inland. Urbanization, as indicated by impervious surface area (ISA), may play a mitigating role. These findings highlight the joint effects of climate change and socioeconomic development in shifting typhoon risks toward emerging vulnerable regions, underscoring the urgency of enhancing risk governance and adaptive capacity.