Evaluating Hurricane Wind Hazard Models to guide the development of Offshore Wind Design Maps

Expansion of offshore wind energy in tropical-cyclone-prone regions (Japan, Taiwan, USA) requires robust and defensible estimates of extreme wind hazard to support engineering design, planning, and risk quantification. In current practice, extreme wind speeds for offshore wind projects are typically derived on a site-specific basis using a combination of historical hurricane records, atmospheric reanalysis products, and synthetic storm simulations. However, the limited length of observational datasets together with the spatial undersampling of rare events and methodological differences between hurricane hazard models may introduce substantial uncertainty and inconsistency in estimated design wind speeds.

This study presents a comparative evaluation of three storm track modeling frameworks commonly used in hazard modeling. The analysis focuses on the U.S. East Coast, extending from South Carolina to the Gulf of Maine. Extreme wind speed maps are generated on a 0.25° × 0.25° grid, consistent with the spatial resolution required for large-scale offshore wind energy design studies and portfolio-level risk assessment. 

The evaluated frameworks differ in both their synthetic storm track generation methodologies and their associated hurricane wind field models. Using consistent regional domains and return-period definitions, we quantify differences in modeled extreme wind speeds and assess their spatial variability across sub-regions. The results reveal large discrepancies between hazard intensity maps, particularly in areas characterized by low historical storm frequency. These findings highlight the intrinsic uncertainty associated with hurricane hazard modeling for offshore wind applications and demonstrate the importance of systematic benchmarking across methodologies. By providing reference-scale comparisons of extreme wind hazard estimates, this work aims to support more consistent, transparent, and defensible assessment of design wind conditions for offshore wind energy infrastructure.