Empirical Evaluation of a Geologic, Environmental, and Anthropogenic Risk Reduction Model

 

Natural geological, environmental, and anthropogenic-induced hazard identification and associated impacts are of key concern for the survival of all species on Earth. Each hazard is related and linked to one another through geology. For purposes of this paper, a hazard refers to a natural geologic, environmental, or anthropogenic-induced event. Risk is a measure of the magnitude of an event and the frequency of occurrence. Risk can be applied by evaluating the probability of a negative outcome or impact from a geologic, environmental, or anthropogenic-induced hazard source. Sensitivity is a measure of how resilient a target population or ecological sector is to the hazard. The combination of these factors can be expressed as an equation (Equation 1), where the result is potential Impact Severity

Geologic/Environmental/Anthropogenic-induced Hazard X Magnitude and Risk of Occurrence X Sensitivity = Impact Severity              Equation 1 

Understanding the geological, hydrological, and ecological environment is the first step in assessing risk and is represented by the general term Impact Severity.  The second step is evaluating aspects of human behavior that affect the environment either through negative or positive outcomes. The third variable is evaluating the effectiveness of risk reduction measures. An equation is created by combining these fundamental concepts through which a Sustainability Index is the output (see Equation 2 below).  The Sustainability Index represents a measure of sustainability for any particular location with a higher value representing increased risk for potential harm to human health or the environment and therefore, less sustainable.

   Impact Severity x Behavioral Aspects x 1/ Risk Reduction Measure = Sustainability Index        Equation 2

To evaluate the potential effectiveness of the Sustainability Index, it has undergone 18 years of testing at as many at 67 manufacturing locations in 12 different countries of the world. Primary risk inputs involved numerous geologic hazards and vulnerability, climate change using NOAA CMIP5 models, and contaminant risk factors using toxicity, persistence and mobility variables for air, water and soil. Over the 18-year period, improvements in Risk Reduction Measures have been realized by an average of 80% resulting in a significant reduction in overall risk. The most significant challenge during the 18-year implementation and evaluation period was changing cultural attitudes and behaviors. This highlights the difficult actions that must be addressed to change cultural attitudes and behaviors toward Earth.