Restoration potential of eutrophic shallow lakes in eastern China under potential climate change

Extreme weather events pose severe challenges to the recovery of aquatic ecosystems, particularly for shallow lakes in critical stages of eutrophication restoration. Clarifying the tipping characteristics, mechanisms, and driving factors during ecosystem recovery is essential for improving sustainable management. Focusing on typical shallow lakes in eastern China at key governance stages, this study integrates sediment core analysis and historical monitoring records to reconstruct century‑scale eutrophication trajectories, identify regime shifts, and derive potential recovery pathways and restoration baselines. By combining short‑term observations with long‑term paleolimnological evidence, we develop and calibrate a PCLake dynamic model adapted to shallow lake ecosystems. Through scenario simulations that incorporate future extreme climate change and human‑induced stressors, we systematically analyze responses in ecosystem structure and function, and quantitatively assess vulnerability, resilience, and potential tipping points. This research aims to provide a scientific foundation for adaptive management of shallow lakes in regions during a critical restoration window under intensifying climate warming.