Understanding rainfall patterns and farmers' concerns in Eastern Sahel amid alternate hydroclimatic extremes

Variability is an inherent characteristic of the African Sahel climate, posing risks to the region's agriculture-based economy. Nevertheless, agricultural research on the region rarely integrates hydroclimatic extremes (i.e., droughts and floods). To address this gap at least in part, we raise the following research questions: Are there considerable differences between rainfall patterns and farmers' concerns under alternating hydroclimatic extremes? Which rainfall attribute(s) do farmers consider most concerning? What support do they need to navigate climate variability? To this end, we first identified 26 notorious drought and flood events from the literature for the analysis, spanning 1970-2020. In total, 16 of these events were droughts and the rest were floods. Second, we used stations' daily rainfall for the Sudanese Sahel (1.03 million square kilometres of arid and semi-arid environment) to calculate the number of rainy days (NURD) and dekadal indices of rainfall seasonality, concentration and intra-annual variability for the 26 events. The region was divided into two zones: Eastern Sudanese Sahel (EASS) and Western Sudanese Sahel (WESS). Third, we tested for significant differences in the means of these indices across the two zones, the two hazards, and the periods of the Sahel drought and recovery. Finally, we examined the responses of 307 and 499 farmers surveyed in the rainfed sector across EASS and WESS, respectively. The responses focused on their perception of rainfall change, adaptation measures against climate change, and barriers to implementing these adaptation strategies. Results showed significant differences in the means of indices between the two zones, between the drought and flood extremes for EASS, and only between the two extremes in the NURD for WESS. No significant change in the means of any of the indices occurred between the Sahel drought and recovery periods. The NURD plays a key role in shaping rainfall patterns, particularly in EASS. Conversely, this factor is unimportant both during the recovery period and during flood events in WESS. In general, higher NURD indicated less dekadal rainfall seasonality and variability across the year. In both zones, changes in the amount of rainfall overshadows the other perceived changes in detailed rainfall conditions. The majority of farmers are of the opinion that rainfall is decreasing. Surprisingly, the farmers in both zones seem to have little awareness of/concern about the recent frequent occurrence of both droughts and floods. Only 7.0% of WESS farmers mentioned lack of meteorological information as a barrier to adapting to climate change. Moreover, it is entirely missing from the suggested actions needed to cope. Although 44.0% of EASS respondents reported lacking meteorological information, only 15.7% of farmers reported that such information is crucial to coping with climate change. This study underscores the need for analyzing both hydroclimatic extremes integratively. However, without overlooking the farmers' socioeconomic characteristics, strengthening the weather forecast infrastructure emerges as one of the intrinsic pathways toward agricultural adaptability and transformation in Sahelian Sudan.