1,1,- 1PSE Healthy Energy, Oakland, CA, USA
- 2Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
- 3Environmental Health Sciences Division, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA
- 4Energy Technologies Area, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Berkeley, CA
The Methane Risk Map (MRM) currently quantifies acute health risks from U.S. oil and gas methane emissions events by combining remotely-sensed methane emissions with atmospheric dispersion modeling and gas composition information derived from permit data. Here, we present a pilot study demonstrating the MRM approach can be extended internationally using a super-emitter pipeline leak near Cheltenham, UK and measured benzene-to-methane molar ratios. We modeled the event using satellite-derived emission estimates from GHGSat (236-1,375 kg hr⁻¹ over ~11 weeks) combined with the AERMOD dispersion model driven by 4-km WRF meteorology. We applied the measured benzene-to-methane molar ratios from UK natural gas samples to estimate co-emitted benzene emissions and air concentrations.
Maximum modeled 1-hour benzene concentrations reached 1,277 ppbv near the source and 8-hour averages exceeded 855 ppbv, which is over four times the 200 ppbv EU occupational exposure limit. Critically, modeled benzene enhancements of 1.6 ppbv extended up to 10 km downwind, potentially affecting Cheltenham and several nearby villages. This pilot study validates the technical feasibility of applying MRM methodology internationally and upholds our previous findings (Bisogno et al. 2025) that methane super emitters may pose health risks to surrounding communities. These results also provide actionable information to prioritize mitigation efforts in regions that are subjected to methane super emitter events and motivate expanding MRM internationally. We are currently increasing data collection efforts globally, prioritizing regions with available gas composition data and satellite-detected emissions events to enable worldwide health risk assessment of oil and gas methane emissions.
Reference:
Bisogno, S., Moniruzzaman, C. G., Heath, N., Efstathiou, C., Domen, J. K., Hill, L. A. L., ... & Bilsback, K. R. (2025). Not just a climate problem: the safety and health risks of methane super-emitter events. Environmental Research Letters, 20(9), 094025.
How to cite: Heath, N., Bisogno, S., Domen, J., Sparks, T., Kashtan, Y., Rowland, S., Lebel, E., Huang, G., Lucha, N., Shonkoff, S., Michanowicz, D., and Bilsback, K.: Modeling Health Risks from International Oil and Gas Methane Emissions: A Pilot Study in the United Kingdom, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22582, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22582, 2026.
