Impact-based analysis of compound hydroclimatic events in The Netherlands: case studies in energy and agriculture sectors

Compound climate and weather extremes are increasingly recognized as key drivers of high-impact events, yet existing frameworks to assess their risk are often sector-specific and thus not broadly applicable. In this study, we develop an impact-based framework for characterizing and quantifying compound events and apply it to two case studies in the Netherlands. Our approach links multivariate meteorological conditions (the physical drivers) to sector-specific vulnerabilities, employs cut-offs based on stakeholder expertise, and draws on publicly available datasets (such as ERA5) to evaluate compound event risk. We apply the framework to two case studies: first, in the renewable-energy sector, we assess the occurrence of wind and solar daily "droughts" that lead to critical shortfalls in renewable power generation; second, in the agricultural sector, we analyze compound temperature–moisture constraints on crop primary productivity, quantifying the probability of extreme conditions detrimental to plant growth. Across both sectors, we employ empirical statistical methods to evaluate the frequency and co-occurrence of critical impacts, producing spatial estimates of return intervals for critical events, and assessing the tail-dependence of critical variables. We produce spatial representations of risk for both cases, which allow for the minimization of compound hazard potential in future planning where specific renewable energy mixes or crop types are assessed. For the energy sector, we identify the critical energy shortfalls as 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-consecutive-day resource scarcity extremes and find their overall risk in terms of average return interval to be of 0.3-, 1-, 4-, and 5-year events based on 40 years of observations. The framework's reliance on identifying an impact of interest and characterizing key variables that control its associated risks enables its application across different sectors and regions, ideally supporting stakeholder engagement and decision-making.