- 1Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan (vishwanathan.saritha.5t@kyoto-u.ac.jp)
- 2Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India (sarithasv@iima.ac.in)
- *A full list of authors appears at the end of the abstract
Most global pathways generated using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) follow a cost-optimized approach, while national scenarios submitted by national models capture the heterogeneity of national circumstances, development priorities, and political realities. National analyses integrated with social sciences and justice insights are essential to close the ‘implementation gap’ between global mitigation pathways and actual mitigation progress. Effort-sharing approaches (also known as burden-sharing) serve as one type of conceptual and ethical bridge between global and national analyses.
Under the Paris Agreement, countries are encouraged to explain how their NDCs are ‘fair and ambitious’. Studies suggest that most parties declare their contributions fair without substantial rigorous metrics. The Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) and Global Stocktake (GST) scheduled every five years are designed to collect and analyze data to assess whether collective national efforts are sufficient to meet long term goals in the light of justice and equity. Additionally, the national pathways are developed through co-production of knowledge with stakeholders, strengthening the findings and building national capacity for long term planning.
In this study, we present national analyses from 10 countries (including emission intensive countries and a few African countries) exploring alternative mitigation pathways that captures each of the current policies, NDC, LTS, and Net-Zero using multiple model analysis. The analysis compares socio-economic assumptions, energy supply, energy demand, emission pathways, and subsequent technology change. Additionally, we compare the respective national carbon budgets with each of the effort-sharing carbon budgets of the selected countries from global models to assess the ‘implementation gap’ and estimate the need in the emission reduction of these countries to achieve the global temperature of 2C and well below 2C. Further, we plan to reflect the unique priorities in national plans and present enablers required from a global perspective to accelerate low-carbon transitions towards net-zero in these selected countries.
Lead Author: Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan, Indian Institute of Management- Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India Co-Authors: Luiz Bernardo Baptista, COPPE/COPPETEC Graduate School of Engineering, UFRJ Universidade Federal do, Rio de Janerio, Brazil Gerd Angelkorte, COPPE/COPPETEC Graduate School of Engineering, UFRJ Universidade Federal do, Rio de Janerio, Brazil Fabio Diuana, COPPE/COPPETEC Graduate School of Engineering, UFRJ Universidade Federal do, Rio de Janerio, Brazil Amit Garg, Indian Institute of Management- Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India Aman Malik, Centre for Energy, Environment and Water, New Delhi, India Pallavi Das, Centre for Energy, Environment and Water, New Delhi, India Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Centre for Energy, Environment and Water, New Delhi, India Haewon McJeon, Korean Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), Daejong, S. Korea Cheolhung Cho, Korean Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), Daejong, S. Korea Chan Park, University of Seoul, Seoul, S. Korea Yohan Choi, University of Seoul, Seoul, S. Korea Mohamad Issa Hejazi, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia Puneet Kamboj, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia Raphael Wentemi Apeaning, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia Tran Thanh Tu, AIM/Hub-Vietnam Shobhakar Dhakal, Asian Institute of Technology, Manila, Thailand Ian Benitez, Asian Institute of Technology, Manila, Thailand Hancheng Dai, Peking University, Beijing, China Yanlei Zhu, Peking University, Beijing, China Abudureymjang Otkur, Peking University, Beijing, China Mel George, University of Maryland, USA Alicia Zhao, University of Maryland, USA Gladys Ombati, Strathmore University, Kenya Hope Njoroge, Strathmore University, Kenya Wenying Chen, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China Shu Zhang, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China Zoi Vrontisi, E3M, Athens, Greece Srishti Goyal, E3M, Athens, Greece Dimitris Fragkiadakis, E3M, Athens, Greece Evelina Trutnevyte, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland Farzaneh Rezaei, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
How to cite: Vishwanathan, S. S. and the Co-authors: Contribution of national analyses to Justice and Social Science Integration , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-22813, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-22813, 2026.
