Dimensions of forest fires in Poland, 2019-2024

Changing climatic conditions are amplifying the frequency and intensity of hydroclimatic extremes across Europe. Droughts, heatwaves, intense precipitation and floods increasingly co-occur and cascade, creating compound risks for ecosystems and societies. One of the most visible and severe consequences of these interconnected crises is the growing global threat of forest fires, which are more often facilitated by favorable weather conditions, as well as forest structure and fuel properties. However, the most important cause of fires is related to human pressure, resulting from intentional or unintentional activities that contribute to the outbreak of fires.

Forests are an assemblage of diverse habitats, each of which may differ markedly in fire risk and fire behaviour. Here, we examine how fire occurrence in Poland varies among forest habitat types, land-use patterns and management functions, and how these relationships are shaped by interannual meteorological variability and regional context. We compile (i) forest fire records for Poland for 2019-2024, (ii) a 2024 state forest administration database of forest divisions (i.e., basic forest management units) including habitat type, dominant tree species and main forest function, (iii) a database of socio-economic indicators for country's administrative units, and (iv) annual meteorological characteristics relevant to fire weather. This enables a spatially explicit analysis of fire frequency and (where available) burnt area across heterogeneous forest landscapes, while accounting for administrative-region differences and socio-economic factors that may reflect contrasting management practices, accessibility, and human ignition pressure.

We quantify fire occurrences in 2019-2024 for distinct forest area types (classified by habitat, dominant tree species and function) and evaluate their sensitivity to meteorological conditions across years. The analysis is designed to identify which combinations of forest habitat, tree species, forest function, and local socio-economic structure show consistently elevated fire incidence, whether observed changes between 2019 and 2024 are uniform or regionally differentiated across Poland, and to determine which meteorological characteristics best explain interannual variability in forest fire occurrence. By integrating ecological and forest management attributes with fire records and meteorological context, the study provides an empirical basis for stratified fire-risk assessment in Polish forests and supports targeted prevention and management measures. This research is conducted as part of the NCN project 2023/49/N/ST10/04035 "Fire, burnt area and charcoal - charcoal-data modeling of burnt area, cross-validation of fires and charcoal signal".