Hydro-Mechanical numerical Modeling of Water-Level-Induced Seismicity: Insights from Historic Dead Sea Fluctuations

This study investigates the influence of surface-water-level fluctuations on seismicity in the upper crust, using the historic Dead Sea as a natural laboratory.  We apply a validated 2D poro-elasto-plastic coupling model in COMSOL Multiphysics. The model integrates coupled hydro-mechanical processes, including pore-pressure evolution, plastic strain localization, and permeability changes, to capture the interaction between surface loading and fault stability. Given reported challenges in capturing hydro-mechanical coupling and scaling behaviour in natural systems using the rate-and-state friction (RSF) formulation, this study adopts an alternative modelling framework that does not explicitly incorporate RSF. The study focuses on applying the model to reconstruct earthquake occurrence patterns associated with Dead Sea water-level variations over the past two millennia. Results demonstrate a strong correlation between relatively rapid water-level changes and increased seismic activity, highlighting the critical role of hydrological forcing in earthquake triggering. These findings provide new insights into reservoir-induced seismicity and underscore the importance of incorporating surface water dynamics into seismic hazard assessment.