Event-based learning? Revisiting the 1976 drought and heatwave in a changing climate

Extreme weather events have a disproportionate impact on society and are among the most tangible manifestations of anthropogenic climate change. Their inclusion in National climate services is therefore essential for informing climate risk assessments and adaptation planning. Framing future projections through storyline-based approaches anchored in well-remembered historical events offers a powerful means of connecting climate statistics to societal experience, thereby potentially improving understanding and usability.

Here, we revisit the exceptional summer of 1976, now 50 years ago, which affected large parts of north-western Europe, including the Netherlands, Belgium, and the United Kingdom. 1976 remains one of the most severe drought and heat events in the instrumental record. The event was preconditioned by dry conditions in 1975 and the preceding winter, which depleted soil moisture and groundwater reserves, followed by persistent heatwave conditions during summer 1976 that further intensified drought through enhanced evapotranspiration.

Using Pseudo Global Warming (PGW) experiments with a regional climate model, we place the 1976 event in present-day and future climate contexts. By conditioning on the observed large-scale circulation patterns, we quantify how the intensity and duration of drought and heat would change in progressively warmer climates. This approach allows a direct comparison between historically experienced extremes and plausible future analogues, and facilitates linkage with probabilistic regional climate projections.

We aim to test whether such event-based frameworks for National Climate Scenarios and climate services, support communication of future climate risks, better inform stress-testing of adaptation strategies, and enhance stakeholder engagement.