Understanding multi-hazard risk and resilience in Bandung, Indonesia

The Bandung Metropolitan Region in West Java, Indonesia, is home to over 9 million people and is exposed to multiple interacting geological and hydrometeorological hazards. Bandung City is located within a basin bounded by the Lembang Fault and the active Tangkuban Perahu volcano to the north. Previous studies indicate that the Lembang Fault is capable of generating an earthquake of up to magnitude 7, potentially subjecting up to one third of the region to severe ground shaking. Parts of the city are also highly susceptible to landslides, which, when combined with seismic activity, create the potential for cascading hazards with compounding impacts. In addition, Bandung frequently experiences flooding and landslides that have displaced tens of thousands of people. The city is further exposed to volcanic hazards from nearby volcanoes, including Tangkuban Perahu to the north and Guntur, Papandayan, and Galunggung to the southeast.

This research explores both single- and multi-hazard events that could impact Bandung City using a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches. Co-designed with the Bandung City Government, the study responds directly to the need for improved understanding of the city’s hazard landscape and patterns of exposure to inform effective risk reduction and resilience-building interventions. We employ a storyline approach to develop plausible multi-hazard scenarios involving earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and associated cascading hazards. These scenarios are complemented by quantitative modelling of earthquake and volcanic hazards, including tephra fall, lahars, and pyroclastic density currents, to produce probabilistic hazard footprints for disaster risk management planning. In parallel, we are developing detailed physical and social exposure models using satellite Earth observation, artificial intelligence, and census data integration to identify communities most at risk. Through close collaboration with local authorities, we are engaging directly with these communities via workshops to better understand vulnerability and co-develop targeted interventions that enhance community resilience and support sustainable development by reducing long-term human and economic losses.