Surface Water Dynamics under Changing Climate: Integrating Multi-Sensor Satellite Observations (1999–2025) across the Falkland Islands

A major threat to Falkland Islands (FI) biodiversity and livelihoods is a drying climate. As warming continues, FI water security is a growing concern, but we lack baseline data to inform mitigation and adaptation. This study applies an innovative remote sensing approach to monitor long-term surface water variability across the Falkland Islands, aiming to support climate-resilient water management. Using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, historical dynamics from 1999–2021 were derived from the Global Surface Water (GSW) Explorer dataset, while recent trends (2021–2025) were assessed using Harmonized Sentinel-2 MSI Level-2A imagery. Together, these enable the first continuous, multi-decadal assessment of pond, wetland, and lake dynamics across East Falkland, West Falkland, and Lafonia. Preliminary results show a relative decline in surface water extent across East Falkland, West Falkland, and Lafonia from 1999 to 2021. More recent Sentinel-2 observations reveal regionally distinct trends from 2021 to 2025: East Falkland remains relatively stable, West Falkland shows a modest increase, and Lafonia exhibits a pronounced rise with strong seasonal variability. These results align with limited ground observations from the water level monitoring site, where satellite-derived surface water area strongly correlates with recorded maximum water levels, confirming the hydrological consistency of the satellite data. Despite limited ground validation, this proof-of-concept highlights the capability of cloud-based remote sensing tools to monitor hydrological variability at regional scale. This approach illustrates how open-access Earth observation data and hydroinformatics tools can aid early detection of climate-driven water changes and strengthen water management in data-scarce areas. It also establishes a basis for future studies linking satellite data with peatland hydrology and ecosystem resilience.

Keywords: Climate Change Impacts, Surface Water Variability, Remote Sensing, Sentinel-2, Google Earth Engine