Prediction systems can forecast the direction of global stilling.

The near-surface (10-m) wind speed (hereafter referred to as NSWP) is a key meteorological variable that contributes to the hydrological cycle, the transport of dust and plants, and the energy sector (e.g. wind energy). The NSWP decreased over the Northern Hemisphere (0–70°N) between 1980 and 2010. This decrease in the mean NSWP over the Northern Hemisphere is known as 'global stilling'. Using decadal predictions (DCPP-A, or Decadal Climate Prediction Project, Phase A), we demonstrate the feasibility of predicting the direction of global stilling for forecast lead times ranging from one to ten years. For example, prediction skill (quantified as the anomaly coefficient correlation, ACC) is high for the 2–5 year forecast lead time (ACC = 0.81). We demonstrate that this high prediction skill is due to the impact of changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and anthropogenic aerosol emissions. However, the prediction of wind speed variability relative to the long-term downward trend is poor.