Unlocking Transformative Climate Adaptation: A Behavioural Lens on Californian Farmers’ Preferences, Drivers, and Narratives

Farmers are increasingly exposed to climate change-induced stressors, including rising temperatures, altered rainfall patterns, and the growing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Understanding farmers’ actions and the factors that drive their responses to climate extremes is therefore essential for developing forward-looking, potentially transformative strategies that enhance climate resilience. The literature highlights three critical stages in addressing climate change: (i) recognizing observed environmental changes; (ii) evaluating whether these changes necessitate transformative behavioural responses to ensure resilience; and (iii) implementing effective adaptation measures to reduce vulnerability. In the pursuit of understanding ‘realistic’ farmers behaviour, researchers have increasingly acknowledged the range of factors and interactions that motivate climate behaviours, emphasizing the importance of cognitive processes beyond purely rational decision-making.

Adopting a bottom-up approach, this contribution examines farmers’ climate change behaviour through a triple-loop analytical framework encompassing awareness, perception, and adaptation. We conducted a survey of a random sample of 922 farmers in California to address three primary research questions: 1) to what extent do farmers perceive and respond to climate change, and what barriers constrain their capacity to reduce climate vulnerability? 2) whether risk adaptation pathways differ across farmers and, if so, which drivers shape their preferences and decision-making; and 3) how narratives and ‘wicked problems’ –such as climate scepticism, maladaptation, techno-optimism, and eco-anxiety– influence climate change initiatives and farmers’ tactical (short-term) and strategic (long-term) responses to evolving climate risks. To address these questions, we employ descriptive statistics, econometric analysis, clustering techniques, and structural equation modelling to capture farmer heterogeneity, identify cognitive and behavioural drivers of transformative responses, and disentangle the relative importance of factors shaping adaptive capacity.

The results indicate that farmers are generally aware of climate change and perceive increasing climate variability and impacts, particularly reporting rising temperatures, more frequent heatwaves and droughts, and declining rainfall and snowpack. Farmers employ a combination of coping strategies (e.g., weather and climate information services, insurance) and preventive measures (e.g., reduced fertilization, more efficient irrigation systems, and soil conservation practices). Nevertheless, several significant barriers to adaptation emerge, including high investment costs, increasingly stringent environmental regulations, and insufficient financial support for climate adaptation initiatives (e.g., water trading programs). The findings also reveal substantial heterogeneity in farmers’ attitudes and preferences regarding adaptation strategies. Accordingly, farmers can be classified into three behavioural profiles: Negationists (low-concern, unconvinced adapters), Optimisers (cautious, pragmatic adapters), and Proactives (well-informed, motivated adapters), highlighting pronounced behavioural diversity. The structural equation model confirmed that climate change awareness significantly predicts variability in farmers’ behavioural responses through perceived impacts; however, the causal linkage between risk perception and risk adaptation appears weaker and less robust. Overall, these insights support the integration of bottom-up behavioural evidence into climate behaviour modelling and inform the design of more targeted, flexible, and effective adaptation policies and instruments.