A Novel Hydrological Signature-Informed Framework for Enhancing Extreme Streamflow Prediction Using Multi-Task Learning

Hydrological signatures (HS) have proven to be highly effective in calibrating physically-based hydrological models, enhancing their process consistency. However, their integration into parameter optimization for deep learning (DL)-based hydrological models has been limited. To address this gap, we propose a novel HS-informed framework that dynamically integrates hydrological signatures into DL parameterization through a multi-task learning approach. This study evaluates the impact of HS integration on model performance using a large-scale, global hydrological dataset. The HS-informed model achieved a significant performance improvement, with a median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.739, compared to 0.666 for the baseline model across the test set. Notably, the most pronounced improvements in NSE were observed in hydrologically complex basins, including baseflow-dominated (+0.135), drought-prone (+0.148), and flood-prone basins (+0.159). Sensitivity analysis further revealed that the HS-informed model could leverage extended historical input data (over 120 days) to sustain robust performance (median NSE of 0.715) over a 30-day forecast period. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis highlighted two key mechanisms underlying these improvements: the enhanced recognition of long-term hydrological patterns through improved memory and a better representation of catchment heterogeneity by emphasizing non-climatic attributes. These findings demonstrate that integrating hydrological signatures offers a superior approach to traditional point-error-based calibration in AI-driven hydrological modeling.