Do economic preferences predict public support for different carbon dioxide removal technologies?

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is an essential and integral part of the European Climate Law, while the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recognizes CDR as a “necessary element” to keep global warming well below 2°C, let alone 1.5°C. There is extensive debate in expert and policy circles about the role of CDR for achieving ambitious climate objectives. Engaging with publics around CDR technologies is crucial, however, given their broad unfamiliarity and the potential for backlash once technologies are deployed more widely (if not earlier).

Though there is an increasingly rich literature on public perceptions of CDR, several key gaps remain. First, there is a tendency to neglect those in the global South. Second, though there has been an understandable focus on climate beliefs and beliefs about science and technology, there is little consideration of the individual differences to take risks, delay outcomes, and act pro-socially (i.e. “economic preferences”). The broad importance of economic preferences has been established across various domains. As CDR becomes a more commercially viable (and less hypothetical) proposition, such economic preferences are also more likely to have meaning.

Using cross-country, nationally representative surveys in five countries (China, Germany, US, Brazil, Kenya; 4000 participants), we examine perceptions and support of CDR technologies and climate policies. Following our pre-registered hypotheses, we employ regression analysis to establish whether six types of economic preferences (risk-taking, patience, altruism, positive reciprocity, negative reciprocity, trust) predict support for three CDR technologies: direct air capture; afforestation and reforestation; enhanced rock weathering. We employ validated measures from Falk et al. (2018) as the key determinants, along with variables for climate beliefs, environmental identity, science and technology beliefs; and trust in responsible institutions. These additional variables will be examined as potential moderating factors of the relationship between economic preferences and CDR support.