Gaps and Needs in Multi-Hazard and Uncertainty Communication for Volcanic Risk Management in Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain): A Multi-Stakeholder Approach

Communication is a central component of all phases of the risk management cycle. However, it remains a complex and challenging process. Effective risk communication requires messages to be tailored to specific audiences and to the timing of communication. It must also account for factors such as risk perception, trust, and cognitive and psychological processes that influence decision-making. As a result, even when information is successfully received, it does not always lead to appropriate action. Two particularly challenging aspects of risk communication are the communication of multi-hazard scenarios and the communication of scientific uncertainty. Increasing evidence shows that natural hazards rarely occur in isolation, but may occur simultaneously or as cascading events. At the same time, uncertainty is an inherent component of hazard and risk assessment. When appropriately communicated, it can provide valuable information for decision-making. This study aims to identify key gaps and needs in the communication of multi-hazard risk and scientific uncertainty in the context of volcanic risk management. Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain) is used as a case study. Volcanic eruptions are selected because they represent multi-hazard processes in themselves and are characterised by high levels of uncertainty. Tenerife (2,034 km²) presents a particularly relevant socio-economic context due to its high population density (approximately 960,000 residents) and high tourism pressure, with more than seven million visitors in 2024. These characteristics increase the complexity of risk communication and decision-making during periods of volcanic unrest. To identify the main challenges in current volcanic risk communication in Tenerife related to multi-hazard and uncertainty issues, a mixed qualitative approach was adopted. First, semi-structured interviews were conducted online between September 2025 and January 2026 with key stakeholders involved in volcanic risk management. These included political authorities, first responders, civil protection and risk management professionals, scientific institutions, grassroots organisations, tourism representatives, psychologists, and mass media. Second, on-site participation during the first Spanish volcanic eruption drill, held in September 2025 in Garachico (Tenerife), enabled the collection of qualitative data on local residents’ risk perception and inter-institutional coordination. Third, existing communication strategies were reviewed within the main volcanic risk management plans affecting Tenerife: the Special Plan for Civil Protection and Emergency Response to Volcanic Risk in the Autonomous Community of the Canary Islands (PEVOLCA) and the Island Action Plan for Volcanic Risk (PAIV). The findings of this study provide a basis for identifying priority gaps and practical needs in current communication practices. Future research will build on these results through experimental studies with selected stakeholder groups to test and evaluate communication products addressing multi-hazard scenarios and scientific uncertainty. While focused on volcanic risk, this research contributes to broader hazard communication science by identifying transferable principles for communicating complex, uncertain, and multi-hazard risks to non-expert audiences.

This research was partially funded by the European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO) of the European Commission (EC) through the VOLCAN project (ref. 101193100).