From Surface Ozone Risk Assessment to Climate Adaptation-Oriented Air Quality Policy

Surface ozone has become a major air quality concern in Taiwan as particulate matter concentrations have declined, while climate warming is expected to intensify high-temperature and high-ozone compound events. These changes increase health risks and challenge the effectiveness of existing air pollution control strategies, highlighting the need for atmospheric science that directly informs climate adaptation planning.

This study integrates source-oriented ozone analyses and warming-scenario simulations to link ozone formation processes with policy-relevant adaptation needs in southern Taiwan, focusing on the Linyuan industrial region and surrounding townships. Source apportionment and ozone formation potential analyses indicate that highly reactive volatile organic compounds associated with petrochemical activities play a dominant role in ozone enhancement during high-temperature episodes, identifying clear targets for emission-oriented mitigation strategies.

To assess how climate change may alter air quality risks, ozone hazards were evaluated under baseline, +2 °C, and +4 °C warming scenarios. Results show a pronounced increase in the frequency and spatial extent of high-ozone hazard days under warming conditions, suggesting that climate change can amplify ozone exposure even under existing emission control frameworks.

Beyond hazard characterization, this study develops a spatially explicit ozone risk assessment framework that integrates hazard, exposure, and vulnerability components to support climate adaptation planning. Exposure indicators reflect local ventilation conditions, while vulnerability metrics incorporate demographic structure and healthcare accessibility. The analysis identifies emerging ozone risk hotspots, including Meinong and Yanpu townships, where elevated hazards coincide with higher exposure and limited adaptive capacity.

By translating atmospheric science results into both mitigation-oriented and adaptation-oriented policy options, this study demonstrates how integrated air quality and climate analyses can inform effective public health protection and climate adaptation strategies. The proposed framework provides a transferable approach for supporting evidence-based air quality adaptation planning in subtropical industrial regions.