Was the 13 December 2024 severe thunderstorm over Rome-Fiumicino airport intensified by climate change?

Thunderstorm activity and associated turbulence pose significant operational challenges for major airports, especially in the context of a changing climate. This study analyzes a high impact winter convective event that forced delays and cancellations at the Rome-Fiumicino airport. We investigate how the synoptic conditions of similar events have evolved over the past five decades (1974–2024) using reanalysis data and a pattern analog approach. We compare atmospheric configurations from the past (1974-1999) and recent (1999-2024), focusing on key parameters related to convection and turbulence. For similar synoptic configurations, our results show an increase in Convective Available Potential Energy (up to 20%), low-level vertical wind shear (up to 20–25%), and turbulence (up to 25-30 %) near Rome-Fiumicino airport in the more recent period, indicating a greater potential for organized convection and turbulence. The analysis of vertical atmospheric profiles reveals enhanced wind shear and turbulence especially in the lower troposphere (0-3 km), with implications for mechanical turbulence during aircraft approach and departure. At Rome-Fiumicino airport, the number of fog and thunderstorms during similar synoptic patterns is increased (from 1 to 4), average approaching visibility decreased from 10 to 7 km, stronger surface winds (from 10 to 15 km/h) are observed, with also increases in average temperatures (from 11 to 13 °C). Finally, using a multinomial logistic model we show that hazardous weather events, particularly thunderstorms and hail, are becoming more frequent for similar recent events (from 2% to 6% annual occurrence). These trends are linked to both human-driven climate change and long-term variations in large-scale modes of natural variability.