Modelling climate-based human existence potential and dispersal of Homo sapiens into East Asia (80–30 ka)

The dispersal of Homo sapiens out of Africa represents a key transition in human prehistory, yet the timing, routes, and environmental mechanisms underlying the expansion into East Asia remain debated. Fossil and archaeological evidence suggests the presence of anatomically modern humans in southern China by at least ~80 ka, but the relative importance of different migration corridors is still unresolved.

Three potential dispersal pathways into East Asia have been proposed: a southern coastal route through South and Southeast Asia, a northern inland route via Central Asia and southern Siberia, and a more speculative interior route through the Tarim Basin. While these routes have been widely discussed, most previous studies remain qualitative, and quantitative assessments of how Late Pleistocene climate variability shaped human existence potential and migration pathways are limited.

Here, we apply a Human Dispersal Model (HDM) based on the Human Existence Potential (HEP) framework to explore climate-based constraints on human migration into East Asia between 80 and 30 ka. Palaeoclimate simulations and archaeological site data are combined using a logistic regression approach to estimate HEP through time. The resulting HEP fields are then used to drive dispersal simulations, allowing us to explore potential migration pathways and corridors under different climatic conditions. This modelling framework provides a quantitative perspective on how Late Pleistocene climate variability may have influenced human dispersal into East Asia.