Barents Sea ice loss substantially enhances spring vegetation growth and wheat yields in Eastern Europe

Arctic sea ice decline is known to influence mid-latitude climate, yet its impacts on terrestrial vegetation productivity and agriculture production remain insufficiently understood. Using four decades of satellite observations, agricultural statistics, and earth system model simulations, we show that variations in Barents Sea ice area (BSIA) exert a strong control on spring vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP) across Europe. BSIA loss enhanced spring GPP in eastern Europe but suppresses it in the western Europe, driving a pronounced increasing trend in of GPP in eastern Europe. Wheat yields respond similarly, with low-ice years producing up to +16.51% higher national yields and more than 20% increases at the pixel scales. These impacts are dominated by temperature: reduced BSIA induces large-scale circulation anomalies that warm eastern Europe through cyclonic conditions, enhanced horizontal temperature advection, and increased shortwave radiation, collectively alleviating frost risk and promoting photosynthesis. Current ESMs capture the sea-ice–temperature linkage but systematically underestimate the GPP response, primarily due to weak GPP–temperature sensitivities. Our results highlight BSIA decline as a major but underrepresented driver of spring ecosystem productivity in mid-latitude Europe, and indicate that existing models may substantially underestimate future productivity changes in a rapidly warming Arctic.