Monitoring Climate-Change Effects on the Barton Peninsula, King George Island, Antarctica: Evidence of Accelerated Active Layer Thickening

Antarctica, a critical regulator of global climate, faces threats to its permafrost and ecosystems from recent warming. However, a quantitative understanding of subsurface responses remains limited, hindering accurate environmental modeling. This gap hinders accurate modeling of future environmental changes. This study investigates the influence of rising air temperatures on active layer and permafrost characteristics... by quantifying the links between surface environmental changes and subsurface responses. From 2018–2024, we integrated meteorological observations, drone and satellite remote sensing, and geophysical surveys—electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and ground-penetrating radar (GPR)—to assess atmosphere, surface, and subsurface changes. Our results indicated that the average annual temperature increased by ~1°C, extending the thaw season by ~50 days. Earlier snowmelt reduced albedo, increasing soil heat absorption and meltwater infiltration. The active layer thickened from 1.1 m to 1.5 m (maximum) and from 0.65 m to 0.85 m (dry sites). ERT indicated reduced resistivity at ~1 m depth, reflecting permafrost ice melt, and localized meltwater pooling at ~3 m depth. NDVI data showed increased vegetation activity. Our study shows that even slight warming can drive linked physical and ecological shifts in Antarctica, with implications for global climate feedbacks. Quantitative evidence of active layer thickening and permafrost degradation provides critical baseline data for improving prediction models. Future research should use year-round, three-dimensional monitoring and modeling to capture spatial variability and meltwater dynamics more accurately.