1,- 1School of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
- 2School of Systems Science and Institute of Nonequilibrium Systems, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
- 3Munich Climate Center and Earth System Modelling Group, Department of Aerospace and Geodesy, TUM School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- 5State Key Laboratory of Disaster Weather Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China
- 6Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
- 7Yunnan Key Laboratory of Complex Systems and Brain-Inspired Intelligence, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, China
- 8Faculty of Science, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, China
- 9Joint International Research Laboratory of Catastrophe Simulation and Systemic Risk Governance, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai, China
- 10Institute for Advanced Study in Physics and School of Physics, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
The Tibetan Plateau (TP), known as the "Asian Water Tower," is currently undergoing a rapid wetting trend. While this moisture increase is commonly viewed as beneficial for water availability, it remains unclear whether the hydrological system itself is becoming more resilient, and whether continued warming could push it toward instability. Here, we apply an entropy-based framework to quantify the changing structural organization of the TP's soil moisture system. We show that from 2000 to 2024, regional wetting has driven a long-term decline in entropy, reflecting an increase in system order and stability due to enhanced hydrological buffering capacity. This stability is modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which regulates regional heterogeneity via a distinct spatial dipole. Crucially, however, CMIP6 climate projections reveal an alarming reversal: entropy increases under continued warming and regional contrasts intensify, with some models exhibiting an abrupt mid-century transition. Our findings suggest that while current wetting provides a stabilizing buffer, continued warming is projected to amplify spatial heterogeneity, thereby destabilizing the Asian Water Tower, with significant risks for downstream water security.
How to cite: Xie, Y., Liu, T., Ma, X., Lyu, Y., Wang, X., Qian, Y., Zhang, Y., Wang, M., and Chen, X.: Warming-driven rise in soil moisture entropy signals destabilization of the Asian Water Tower, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3250, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3250, 2026.
