Water–Ecological Risks in Arid Central Asia Under Climate Warming

Climate warming is reshaping cryospheric processes, hydroclimatic extremes, and ecosystem stability across the arid regions of Central Asia. This study presents an integrated assessment of climate change impacts on glacier dynamics, snow regimes, hydroclimatic extremes, and associated water–ecological risks.

Results indicate a pronounced decline in snowfall amount and duration since the late 20th century, accompanied by a widespread transition in snow drought regimes from precipitation-limited to temperature-driven conditions. Projections based on glacier evolution models suggest that glacier runoff in much of the Tianshan region is approaching, or has already passed, peak water. Peak glacier runoff in the Western Tianshan is projected to occur between the late 2020s and mid-century, depending on emission pathways, while the Eastern Tianshan likely entered a post-peak phase in the early 2020s. Meanwhile, the accelerated expansion of glacial lakes has raised the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which are currently 3–4 times higher in the western subregion compared to other areas.

Concurrently, hydroclimatic extremes are intensifying. Heatwaves have become more frequent, longer-lasting, and more severe since the 1980s, particularly in the drylands of Central Asia, where declining soil moisture amplifies surface warming. Compound drought–heatwave events are projected to increase markedly under high-emission scenarios, with prolonged durations exceeding several weeks in some regions. Snow droughts are expected to occur more frequently, with warm snow droughts emerging as the dominant type and accounting for approximately two-thirds of future snow drought events by mid-century. These shifts signal a fundamental reorganization of drought dynamics, with cascading effects on hydrological, agricultural, and ecological systems.

Overall, this research highlights the escalating water-ecological risks in arid Central Asia driven by accelerated cryospheric change and intensifying heat extremes, and shifting drought regimes. The findings emphasize the importance of adaptive water management and climate resilience strategies to support sustainable development in this highly vulnerable region.