From muted to rapid surface warming over India under changing aerosol emissions

 Indian surface temperature has increased more slowly since 1970 than for most land regions at similar latitudes. Air pollution, which reflects sunlight and cools the surface, is widely considered a key contributor, yet the relative roles of aerosol emissions, natural variability, and other forcings remain uncertain, reducing confidence in projections of warming in India. Here, we combine observational temperature records with a new multi-model, multi-ensemble dataset from the Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP) to isolate and quantify the influence of local and remote anthropogenic aerosol emissions on India’s past and future climate. We find that a cleanup of air pollution, necessary for health reasons, would likely turn India from a historical “warming hole” to a future “hotspot” where regional warming exceeds the global mean. This enhanced warming will substantially strengthen heat extremes. By linking climate projections with health impact assessments, however, we show that while aerosol mitigation would intensify heat-related risks, the net health benefits of cleaner air remain strongly positive.