Economic Insights and a Systematic Framework for Creating Resilient Forests: Transitioning from Reactive to Proactive Restoration in Slovenia

Escalating natural disturbances in Central Europe necessitate restoration strategies that prioritize ecological integrity and adaptive capacity. Over the last decade, Slovenian forests—traditionally managed via close-to-nature silviculture—faced historic damage from a catastrophic 2014 ice storm, followed by extraordinary windthrows (2017, 2018, 2023) and subsequent bark beetle outbreaks. These events have rendered natural regeneration alone insufficient to preserve forest functions within acceptable timeframes.

Analyzing Slovenia Forest Service data (2007–2020), this study evaluates the economics of artificial forest restoration across 14 forest management regions. Based on an extensive data analysis conducted by the author (Bozic et al. 2025), we found that €33.6 million was invested to restore 5,353 ha via planting and 457 ha via sowing. Costs were dominated by planting (53%) and protection against game animals (42%). Crucially, natural disasters shifted management dynamics, with disaster-related restoration (planting) rising from 42% pre-2014 to 76% by 2020.

These findings advocate for a shift from reactive forest restoration toward proactive forest structures based on two pillars. First, we see the synergy between genetic adaptation of seed sources and nursery production as vital for seedling survival in extreme environments. To mitigate economic burdens, we propose: (1) differentiated co-financing for resilient mixtures; (2) increased use of sowing; (3) systematic investments in forest stability; and (4) fiscal incentives for quality containerized seedlings and protection against wildlife.

Second, forest restoration could be operationalized through a systematic five-step framework for future forests, co-developed by the authors (Kovac et al. 2024). By integrating site-specific actions into broader landscape goals, this holistic approach ensures consistent decision-making and equitable promotion of all sustainability components—ecological, social, and economic—by treating stands as building blocks of functional habitats. Adhering to the precautionary principle, the framework integrates: (1) environmental zoning via structured forest planning situation analysis; (2) climate-optimal species selection based on desired future portrayals and specific stand-level goals, such as species mingling; (3) the identification of climate-resilient seed sources and provenances to ensure that seedlings possess the genetic plasticity required for optimal growth and long-term adaptation to specific site conditions over several decades; (4) specialized silvicultural models executed via site-specific planting blueprints; and (5) adaptive monitoring. This path, supported by the author's extensive data analysis (Bozic et al. 2025) and personal field leadership, provides a foundation for a scientifically grounded transition from disaster-related restorations toward resilient, high-value forest ecosystems.