Potential for future erosion in the Arctic in the CANARI HadGEM3 large ensemble

The presence of sea ice at the coast prevents coastal erosion of permafrost in the Arctic most of the year. Decreasing sea ice due to climate change will extend the erosion season. We examine coastal ice presence in a single model large ensemble future projection under the SSP3.70 scenario. We compare sea ice presence against locations with favourable geological conditions for erosion. The Arctic Ocean circulation pattern determines whether nutrients from erosion will be retained in the Arctic or end up the North Atlantic. Both sea ice and circulation conditions depend on the large scale atmospheric pattern, therefore we examine the correlation between high erosion conditions and enhanced outflow conditions. The contributions of Rynders and Aksenov were supported by the National Capability Multicentre Round 2 funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (BIOPOLE grant no. NE/W004933/1 and CANARI grant no. NE/W004984/1).