Atmospheric drivers and thermodynamic controls of precipitation variability in North Africa

Precipitation variability across North Africa spans a wide range of timescales and climatic regimes, from Mediterranean winter precipitation to Saharan convective systems, yet its underlying drivers remain incompletely understood. This contribution synthesizes current knowledge on the atmospheric and surface drivers of precipitation variability in North Africa, drawing on evidence from observations, reanalyses and climate simulations from the Holocene to future projections.

We review the role of large-scale circulation modes, together with synoptic-scale processes such as Rossby wave breaking, cut-off lows, and cyclogenesis, in shaping interannual variability and extreme precipitation events along the Mediterranean coast. Further south, seasonal dynamics linked to the Saharan Heat Low, moisture transport, and land–atmosphere coupling modulate the intermittency and intensity of precipitation in arid regions. Holocene evidence highlights the sensitivity of North African hydroclimate to external forcing and land-surface feedbacks, while also illustrating limits to direct analogy with anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing. Future projections indicate that uncertainty in precipitation change is dominated by internal variability and circulation responses, with more robust signals emerging in variability and extremes than in mean precipitation.

As precipitation variability constitutes a climate hazard in its own right, understanding its atmospheric and thermodynamic drivers is central to assessing drought–flood dynamics and their implications for water resources, ecosystems, and human systems across North Africa.