EGU26-3689, updated on 13 Mar 2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3689
EGU General Assembly 2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Poster | Friday, 08 May, 14:00–15:45 (CEST), Display time Friday, 08 May, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X3, X3.41
Winter Wheat Yield Sensitivity to Snow Drought Is Increasing Across the Northern Hemisphere 
Chen Huijiao1, Wang Shuo2,3, Zhu Peng4, and AghaKouchak Amir5,6,7
Chen Huijiao et al.
  • 1State Key Laboratory of Climate Resilience for Coastal Cities, Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China (huijiao.chen@connect.polyu.hk)
  • 2State Key Laboratory of Climate Resilience for Coastal Cities, Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China (shuo.s.wang@polyu.edu.hk)
  • 3Otto Poon Research Institute for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure and Research Institute for Land and Space, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China(shuo.s.wang@polyu.edu.hk)
  • 4Department of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China(zhupeng@hku.hk)
  • 5Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA(amir.a@uci.edu)
  • 6Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA(amir.a@uci.edu)
  • 7United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health, Richmond Hill, ON, Canada(amir.a@uci.edu)

Global crop productivity heavily relies on snow availability, which has declined in many snow-dependent regions due to warmer winters and intensified snow droughts. However, our understanding of crop yield sensitivity to snow droughts remains limited. Here, we show that winter wheat croplands have experienced an increase in snow drought frequency (5.3%−6.7% more events per decade) from 1960 to 2020. To assess the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to snow droughts, we utilized explainable machine learning, gridded yield datasets, and the standardized snow water equivalent index (SWEI) from 1982 to 2016. Our findings reveal a significant increase in yield sensitivity to SWEI over 25% of Northern Hemisphere winter wheat croplands. Elevated fertilizer application rates, increased freezing stress, and slightly decreased precipitation are identified as primary drivers amplifying this sensitivity. These findings highlight the increasing vulnerability of crop systems to snow droughts, which is critical for guiding agricultural adaptation in a warming future with reduced snowpack.

How to cite: Huijiao, C., Shuo, W., Peng, Z., and Amir, A.: Winter Wheat Yield Sensitivity to Snow Drought Is Increasing Across the Northern Hemisphere , EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3689, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3689, 2026.