Beneath the Surface: Bridging Stakeholder Engagement and Modelling in Geothermal Exploration

Early-stage geothermal exploration depends heavily on geological and numerical modelling to support decision-making under conditions of sparse data, high uncertainty, and significant financial risk. While such models are central to exploration and appraisal workflows, their role, interpretation, and credibility among non-technical stakeholders remain insufficiently understood—particularly during early project phases, when public acceptance, perceived risk, and investment decisions are most sensitive.

This contribution investigates how stakeholders perceive geothermal exploration models and associated uncertainties, with a particular focus on communication challenges at the interface between technical and societal domains. The study accompanies a technically advanced, research-driven modelling framework developed within the GO-Forward project, which can be challenging to interpret even for specialists.

Empirical insights are drawn from two geothermal case areas situated in contrasting national and regulatory contexts: the onshore Gassum Formation (Denmark) and the southern Vienna Basin (Austria). The methodological approach combines expert and stakeholder interviews, a structured stakeholder analysis using a power–interest grid, and two case-specific stakeholder workshops. These workshops address general perceptions of geothermal energy development as well as stakeholder interpretations of modelling outputs, exploration risks, and uncertainties related to assumptions and data limitations.

Preliminary results reveal pronounced procedural differences between the two case areas in terms of stakeholder constellations, institutional roles, and engagement pathways, alongside heterogeneous understandings of modelling and uncertainty. Whereas modelers typically frame uncertainty as an inherent characteristic of subsurface exploration, many stakeholders associate it directly with project risk, credibility, and trust. Practitioners such as energy agencies report relying on geological survey expertise rather than directly using models themselves, for instance when evaluating license applications.

An emerging topic for further investigation is the potential role of advanced modelling approaches in reducing subsurface uncertainty in ways that are relevant for insurance companies, particularly with respect to eligibility and risk assessment criteria. This idea currently stems from discussions with non-insurance stakeholders and will require targeted investigation involving insurance actors.

Despite the limited number of case studies, the findings will provide practical insights into structuring stakeholder interactions during early geothermal exploration and identify uncertainty as a key interface between technical modelling practices and societal expectations. Further results from ongoing stakeholder workshops will be available by May 2026.