1,2,3,4,1,3,5,5,6,1,8,9,- 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Earth Resilience Science Unit (ERSU), Potsdam, Germany (maxbecht@pik-potsdam.de)
- 2Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, D-14476 Potsdam, Germany
- 3Department Integrative Earth System Science, Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology, Kahlaische Strasse 10, D-07745 Jena, Germany
- 4School of Sustainability and School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA
- 5Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Frescativägen 8, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
- 6Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- 7Center for Critical Computational Studies, Goethe University Frankfurt, D-69629 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
- 8Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn, Genscherallee 3, D-53113 Bonn, Germany
- 9Institute for Food and Resource Economics, University of Bonn, Genscherallee 3, D-53113 Bonn, Germany
- 10Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, D-14476 Potsdam, Germany
In order to address the emerging global polycrisis, it is essential to develop quantitative indicators for estimating resilience of essential bio-geophysical and social drivers of change. Such indicators are required to navigate the Anthropocene and to assess which actions increase the likelihood of achieving a safe and just operating space (SAJOS). In this contribution, we present a proposed novel information-based resilience metric. We define it as the conditional probability of a system reaching a desired system state, e.g. a SAJOS, given initial conditions and an information set. This information set reflects knowledge about relevant ranges of bio-physical and socio-cultural system dynamics, boundaries and perturbations. The resulting resilience index is highly dependent on the available information about the system and its intrinsic action capacities. An increase in epistemic knowledge about the system does not necessarily result in enhanced resilience. It is still possible to envisage scenarios in which one could find oneself in a world that is capable of attaining a SAJOS in only a limited number of circumstances. Our proposed approach facilitates the operationalization and quantification of resilience in complex World-Earth system (WES) models. Resilience should be understood as being constrained by available information about the system, its internal processes, boundaries, and the capacity of the system to act in an uncertain future. This further implies the importance of making informed investment decisions that balance improving system understanding (i.e. gaining information), increasing (anticipatory) capacities of action, and taking common-sense action to enhance resilience. Our information-based index can be applied to any kind of system. Since it answers the classical question of “resilience of what, to what” on a meta level, it allows moving beyond a highly specified and static notion of resilience, allowing for a wide range of application cases.
How to cite: Bechthold, M., Anderies, J. M., Donges, J. F., Fetzer, I., Wunderling, N., Barfuss, W., and Rockström, J.: An Information-Based World-Earth System Resilience Index, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3844, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3844, 2026.
