1,2,5,6,7,8,1,9,10,1,11,12,13,12,16- 1The Cyprus Institute, Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C), Nicosia, Cyprus (g.zittis@cyi.ac.cy)
- 2Istituto Nazionale di Geo sica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy
- 3Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research/Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
- 4International Water Research Institute, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Ben Guerir, Morocco
- 5Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay & IPSL, CE Saclay l’Orme des Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- 6London Mathematical Laboratory, London, UK
- 7Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/IPSL, École Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
- 8Environmental and Geophysical Sciences (ENGEOS) Lab, Khalifa University of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
- 9Department of Physics, Faculty of Science and Arts, Bogazici University, Istanbul, Türkiye
- 10Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies, Bogazici University, Istanbul, Türkiye
- 11Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydro- logical Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden
- 12King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
- 13Department of Physics, Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Isik University, Istanbul, Türkiye
- 14Faculté des Sciences et Techniques de Mohammedia, University Hassan II, Casablanca, Morocco
- 15International Center for Biosaline Agriculture, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
- 16Department of Atmospheric Chemistry, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany
Extreme heat events in the Middle East have become increasingly frequent and intense due to human-driven climate change. During the Hajj pilgrimage in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, in June 2024, temperatures soared to a record-breaking 51.8°C, resulting in the tragic deaths of at least 1,300 pilgrims and over 2,700 non-fatal injuries on 16 June alone. Considering that the intensity and persistence of this heatwave exceed all recorded analogues in the available historical record, it may be considered statistically unprecedented within the context of the observed climate. Our analysis of future projections, tailored for the region, indicates that in a warmer climate, we can expect such devastating events to become a regular occurrence, potentially happening every year. In the hottest scenarios, the absolute maximum temperatures in Mecca are projected to reach or exceed 57°C. Addressing these challenges through effective climate mitigation and adaptation is essential to building resilience against future extreme heat risks.
How to cite: Zittis, G., Alberti, T., Almazroui, M., Driouech, F., Faranda, D., Francis, D., Hadjinicolaou, P., Kurnaz, M. L., Lazoglou, G., Nikulin, G., Osipov, S., Ozturk, T., Stenchikov, G., Tanarhte, M., Zaaboul, R., and Lelieveld, J.: The 2024 Hajj heat disaster: a glimpse into the future, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-3922, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3922, 2026.
