Socio-Hydrological Storylines under Deep Uncertainty: Applying DAPP and ABM to Compound Water Stress and Subsidence

Yunlin County, as a major agricultural hub in Taiwan, faces critical challenges stemming from compound water stress under climate change. The interplay of rising demand, induced scarcity, and quality degradation exacerbates existing groundwater over-extraction and land subsidence problems. This research proposes an integrated framework to construct dynamic adaptation pathways that ensure physical and social robustness in water resource management.

The framework comprises three parts. First, we identify potential physical hazards associated with water resources in Yunlin County under climate change and analyze the causal interdependencies among different hazards. Simultaneously, we inventory all adaptation options and map these options to hazards, establishing a structure between risks and responses. Building upon this risk-response structure, the framework employs Dynamic Adaptation Policy Pathways (DAPP) to develop concrete adaptation pathways. The identified interdependencies are translated into tipping points and decision nodes within the DAPP framework, allowing for the construction of comprehensive storylines spanning from physical hazards to adaptive actions, and the strategy of policy making. Finally, to address social uncertainty inherent in policy implementation, the framework employs Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) for social stress-testing. By simulating stakeholder decision-making, ABM reveals how agent interactions influence the environment. We refine the pathways based on ABM outcomes, integrating social perspectives into the storylines. Furthermore, we incorporate water balance, agricultural income, and land subsidence into the evaluation, utilizing Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to develop a dynamic adaptive plan.

By establishing this integrated system, this research aims to utilize DAPP and ABM to formulate robust adaptation strategies. It provides policymakers with a broader vision of the complex trade-offs between water scarcity, social feasibility, and agricultural systems.