Understanding disability-related vulnerability in multi-hazard settings: Impact Chain-based insights for more inclusive DRR/M

People with disabilities are among the most vulnerable in the face of (multi-) hazard events, as their impairments limit their capacity to prepare for and protect themselves during such events. Although disability-related vulnerability plays a critical role in shaping hazard impacts and achieving equitable and inclusive community resilience, it remains understudied, particularly in contexts where Disaster Risk Reduction/Management (DRR/M) research and policy still have to advance to meet the challenges of high-impact natural hazards.

This study aims to examine disability-related vulnerability in the context of a multi-hazard disaster, highlighting both its active (shaping hazard impact) and passive (being addressed by mitigation measures) roles. The methodological framework relies on a comprehensive Impact Chain that places the needs of people with mobility, visual, and hearing impairments at its center. The case study at hand focuses on a multi-hazard disaster context relevant for Bucharest, Romania: a major earthquake (over 7 M_W) that would hit the city in the proximal future, triggering a dam-break flood, fires, and liquefaction.

The Impact Chain was developed combining multiple operational approaches: desktop analysis (a thorough review of scientific literature, grey literature, and other relevant sources), participatory co-development, and refinement through expert knowledge. The hazard and impact elements, as well as the connections established among them were extracted from a previous Impact Chain we co-developed with a broad range of stakeholders in DRR/M. This foundational core was supplemented with disability-related vulnerabilities and adaptation options extracted from various sources (e.g., scientific papers, legislative and normative frameworks, statistical datasets, news reports, websites, etc.). The connections among these elements were primarily established through expert judgement that was cross-validated against empirical evidence from the reviewed sources.

Next steps in model development concern its refinement and validation through surveys conducted with representatives of NGOs working with people with disabilities, as well as with members of disabled communities. We also aim to engage the scientific community at the EGU2026, inviting interested researchers and practitioners to provide feedback, suggest improvements, and contribute via a survey available at the poster presentation.

Following the completion of the Impact Chain, we will make it available to its intended end-users by leveraging  AI-powered tools that enhance accessibility, interaction, and usability (e.g., narrated versions of the Impact Chain for visually impaired people). We also plan to promote the resulting model to stakeholders with interests and responsibility in addressing disability-related vulnerability in Bucharest and across Romania, to support them in the identification of synergies and trade-offs inherent in DRR when addressing this particular type of vulnerability.

This approach supports an improved understanding of the complex interactions among natural hazards, society, and public health. The model enables direct support for the target population in preparing for multi-hazard events, as it works as a practical information tool that assists users in developing personalised emergency plans and coordinating with informal networks and authorities.

This research work intends to turn knowledge into action, empowering people with disabilities and their caregivers to prepare for and withstand multi-hazard events by providing them with adequate information and user-centered guidance.