Carbon Sinks and Policy Trade-offs in Climate Policy: Evidence from COP and CMA Decisions

This study examines how carbon sinks have been addressed in international climate governance through a systematic analysis of decisions adopted from COP1–COP29 and CMA1–CMA8 under the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol, and the Paris Agreement. Tracing changes in issue emphasis across negotiation periods, the study identifies an imbalance in which mitigation strategies focused on energy transition, fossil fuel reduction, and technological solutions increasingly dominate formal decision texts. In contrast, absorption-based approaches such as afforestation, reforestation, and land-use-related carbon sinks have become marginalized in collective decision-making. This pattern suggests that carbon sinks are often treated as supplementary instruments rather than integral components of climate action. The study argues that this marginalization weakens pathways toward sustainable carbon neutrality and constrains the diversity of implementation strategies. It therefore calls for a more balanced governance approach that treats mitigation and absorption as complementary pillars within international climate decision-making processes globally.