Attributing causes of increased intensity of North Atlantic hurricanes using a stochastic model (IRIS)

Understanding how changing conditions influence tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is of great importance. This study applies a stochastic model (IRIS) to attribute the causes of the increased North Atlantic hurricane intensity from 1979 to 2024. In the model, the increased potential intensity and southward track shifts towards higher potential intensity comparably contribute to an increasing trend of 0.08 m/s per year in the lifetime maximum intensity. However, the simulated trends were not sensitive to the epochal changes in relative intensity to date. The model also predicts a southward shift in landfall (-0.10 °/yr), which is hard to detect. Our findings emphasize an increasing recent TC risk, particularly at low latitudes.