A Plate-Tectonic Framework for Predicting Ore Deposit Formation

Long-term sustainability of human civilization depends on secure supplies of metals and critical minerals that underpin energy systems, infrastructure, and technology (IEA, 2021; UNEP, 2024). By 2040, total mineral demand from clean energy technologies is expected to double or quadruple (IEA, 2021), raising concerns about long-term supply sustainability as anthropogenic extraction operates on timescales and magnitudes unconstrained by geological ore-forming rates. Although recycling and substitution can mitigate pressure, widely adopted outlooks still require substantial expansion of primary supply and are commonly framed around reserves, production, and announced project pipelines (IEA, 2024; USGS, 2025).

We present a plate-kinematic framework to forecast ore deposit formation over the next 10 Myr by coupling tectonic setting–specific deposit-generation functions to a forward plate-motion model. Unlike reserve- or discovery-trend extrapolations, this approach explicitly links plate tectonics to mineralization rates, providing a first-order estimate of Earth’s natural “mineral renewal” capacity (IEA, 2024; USGS, 2025). We apply the method to two deposit types: (1) porphyry–epithermal systems in continental arcs, parameterized by plate convergence rates and lithospheric factors (crustal thickness, slab composition, and proxies for slab oxidation state), reflecting how rapid convergence and thick crust favor porphyry formation, while explicitly accounting for melt–fluid–driven mass transfer of copper and oxidized species within subduction zones; and (2) mid-ocean ridge seafloor massive sulfides (SMS), linked to spreading rate, ridge depth, and detachment fault occurrence at slow-spreading centers. These parameterizations are integrated into a global 1°-resolution plate model extrapolated 10 Myr into the future to produce spatially explicit, time-dependent maps of ore-forming potential. Because most new oceanic crust is not subducted within a 10 Myr horizon, our model estimates gross SMS formation within a limited accessibility window (controlled by sediment burial), while acknowledging subduction recycling as a longer-term sink.

The resulting formation- and accessibility-weighted metrics provide benchmarks for Earth’s natural mineral replenishment rate, against which scenario-based demand projections can be compared, thereby strengthening sustainability discussions with geodynamically grounded constraints.

References:

International Energy Agency (IEA): The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions, IEA, Paris, 2021.

International Energy Agency (IEA): Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024, IEA, Paris, 2024.

United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and International Resource Panel (IRP): Global Resources Outlook 2024 – Bend the trend: Pathways to a Liveable Planet as Resource Use Spikes, UNEP, 2024, doi:20.500.11822/44901.

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS): Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 (ver. 1.2, March 2025), U.S. Geological Survey, 212 pp., doi:10.3133/mcs2025, 2025.